Background

Notes and format last updated Apr 16, 2020

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 15,407
2 New Jersey 13,089
3 Massachusetts 8,743
4 Rhode Island 7,784
5 Connecticut 7,507
6 Louisiana 5,949
7 District of Columbia 5,817
8 Delaware 4,780
9 Michigan 4,041
10 Illinois 3,973
11 Pennsylvania 3,608
12 Maryland 3,448
13 South Dakota 2,684
14 Indiana 2,552
15 Colorado 2,549
16 Georgia 2,288
17 Mississippi 2,207
18 Iowa 2,168
19 Nebraska 2,003
20 Washington 1,888
21 Virginia 1,752
22 Nevada 1,601
23 Florida 1,545
24 New Mexico 1,532
25 New Hampshire 1,510
26 Tennessee 1,509
27 Ohio 1,480
28 Alabama 1,412
29 Utah 1,403
30 Vermont 1,381
31 North Dakota 1,355
32 Kansas 1,304
33 California 1,237
34 Missouri 1,232
35 South Carolina 1,142
36 Wisconsin 1,119
37 Arkansas 1,062
38 Idaho 1,024
39 Kentucky 1,015
40 Arizona 989
41 Texas 959
42 North Carolina 948
43 Oklahoma 877
44 Minnesota 823
45 Maine 785
46 Wyoming 698
47 West Virginia 618
48 Oregon 579
49 Alaska 482
50 Puerto Rico 448
51 Hawaii 427
52 Montana 421

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 New Jersey 271
2 Massachusetts 257
3 Rhode Island 254
4 Delaware 212
5 New York 199
6 Illinois 169
7 Iowa 142
8 Connecticut 140
9 Nebraska 129
10 District of Columbia 125
11 Maryland 125
12 Indiana 107
13 Pennsylvania 90
14 Michigan 87
15 New Mexico 77
16 Virginia 77
17 Mississippi 73
18 North Dakota 72
19 Colorado 71
20 Kansas 69
21 Louisiana 63
22 Minnesota 61
23 South Dakota 61
24 Georgia 57
25 New Hampshire 46
26 California 43
27 Tennessee 39
28 Utah 39
29 Ohio 38
30 North Carolina 35
31 Alabama 34
32 Kentucky 34
33 Wisconsin 34
34 Nevada 32
35 Washington 31
36 Arizona 30
37 Missouri 30
38 Texas 30
39 Florida 25
40 South Carolina 25
41 Arkansas 22
42 Wyoming 19
43 Oklahoma 18
44 Idaho 11
45 Maine 10
46 Oregon 10
47 West Virginia 10
48 Alaska 6
49 Puerto Rico 6
50 Vermont 5
51 Hawaii 1
52 Montana 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 926
2 New Jersey 762
3 Connecticut 608
4 Massachusetts 494
5 Louisiana 387
6 Michigan 367
7 District of Columbia 290
8 Rhode Island 236
9 Pennsylvania 186
10 Illinois 175
11 Maryland 162
12 Delaware 147
13 Indiana 143
14 Colorado 132
15 Washington 105
16 Georgia 102
17 Mississippi 84
18 Ohio 80
19 Nevada 76
20 Vermont 75
21 Virginia 61
22 Florida 56
23 Kentucky 56
24 Minnesota 56
25 Oklahoma 54
26 Alabama 53
27 Missouri 53
28 New Mexico 53
29 Wisconsin 52
30 California 49
31 New Hampshire 48
32 Iowa 46
33 Kansas 45
34 South Carolina 45
35 Arizona 42
36 Maine 38
37 Nebraska 35
38 North Carolina 34
39 Idaho 33
40 Tennessee 29
41 Texas 26
42 North Dakota 24
43 Oregon 23
44 West Virginia 22
45 Arkansas 19
46 Puerto Rico 16
47 Montana 14
48 South Dakota 14
49 Utah 14
50 Wyoming 12
51 Hawaii 11
52 Alaska 9

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 31
2 Massachusetts 24
3 Connecticut 22
4 New York 17
5 Pennsylvania 13
6 District of Columbia 12
7 Michigan 11
8 Louisiana 9
9 Delaware 8
10 Maryland 8
11 Illinois 7
12 Indiana 7
13 Rhode Island 7
14 Georgia 5
15 Ohio 5
16 Colorado 4
17 Iowa 3
18 Kentucky 3
19 Nevada 3
20 South Carolina 3
21 Alabama 2
22 California 2
23 Florida 2
24 Minnesota 2
25 Mississippi 2
26 Missouri 2
27 Nebraska 2
28 New Mexico 2
29 Virginia 2
30 Washington 2
31 Arizona 1
32 Kansas 1
33 New Hampshire 1
34 North Carolina 1
35 Oklahoma 1
36 Texas 1
37 West Virginia 1
38 Wisconsin 1
39 Alaska 0
40 Arkansas 0
41 Hawaii 0
42 Idaho 0
43 Maine 0
44 Montana 0
45 North Dakota 0
46 Oregon 0
47 Puerto Rico 0
48 South Dakota 0
49 Tennessee 0
50 Utah 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
New York New York 101,217 1 99
Lincoln Arkansas 62,500 2 99
Bledsoe Tennessee 39,299 3 99
Rockland New York 35,563 4 99
Marion Ohio 33,736 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 3,772 210 93
Richland South Carolina 2,126 444 85
Pierce Washington 1,555 649 79
Orange California 732 1254 60
York South Carolina 701 1295 58

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
New York New York 7,567 1 99
Randolph Georgia 2,803 2 99
Terrell Georgia 2,110 3 99
Early Georgia 2,061 4 99
Nassau New York 1,531 5 99
Richland South Carolina 72 575 81
Pierce Washington 56 701 77
Davidson Tennessee 36 915 70
Orange California 14 1263 59
York South Carolina 11 1316 58

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons